California's 39th, 45th + 48th: Leadership Lab & StandUp OC
The team that turned Orange County blue for the first time in 80 years for Hillary Clinton sets its sights on flipping CA-39, CA-45 and CA-48. The group that pioneered deep canvassing brings its persuasive skills to bear on the critical issues in the race.
Orange County has been reliably Republican for decades, but Hillary Clinton prevailed in 2016. Incumbents Mimi Walters & Dana Rohrabacher’s margin of victory both slipped by 7-8 points between 2014 and 2016; they are even more vulnerable today after Democrats dramatically closed the vote gaps in the primaries by 17% and 14%, respectively. The races have moved from Likely R, to Lean R and toss-up on the Cook Political Report, in just one year. In CA-39, incumbent Ed Royce is retiring and Democratic candidates picked up 23,000 votes to Republicans’ 4,400 in the 2018 primaries and are well-positioned to take advantage of increased turnout in November.
Our two partners in Orange County, StandUp OC and Leadership Lab, bring deep knowledge of how to win in Orange County, as well as expertise in deploying research-backed deep canvassing to persuade swing voters. StandUp OC grew out of the Hillary Clinton campaign and has maintained an engaged volunteer base of nearly 800 people who continue to call, text and canvass on behalf of Democratic candidates locally and nationwide. Leadership Lab has honed its deep canvassing model to authentically engage and persuade voters on a range of issues and is expanding to CA-48 for the first time.
StandUp OC is coordinating volunteers for the Democratic Party of Orange County, including working with local resistance and political groups to ensure that efforts are as aligned and effective as possible. They are Getting Out the Vote with base voters and will do deeper data analysis to micro-target swing voters with an investment from Fight for Better. Leadership Lab is currently leading non-partisan, issue-based canvasses in priority precincts; additional funding will allow them to add the partisan element (specifically connecting issues to the political parties) which will be critical to impacting the 2018 election.