California's 39th, 45th + 48th: Leadership Lab & StandUp OC

Fight contributions to Stand Up OC: $10K for data systems, $10K for mobile texting campaign.

“Fight helped us in so many ways: fundraising, connecting us to their network… [Fight] kept urging me to THINK BIGGER. Think about everything you want… and we’ll see what we can get for you. Put your wish list together. They added adrenaline. They changed the way we felt. When you know you have someone at your back, it relieves the pressure and allows you to focus on what you need to.”

“They come from a data-driven world, and that helped us professionalize, made us feel professional. Fight’s value to Stand Up OC was just as much about the funding as it was about the advice and validating the sense that we’re going to last.”

– Quinn Ruvacava, Chair, Stand Up OC (former regional director, 2016 Hillary campaign)

 
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right place

Orange County has been reliably Republican for decades, but Hillary Clinton prevailed in 2016. Incumbents Mimi Walters & Dana Rohrabacher’s margin of victory both slipped by 7-8 points between 2014 and 2016; they are even more vulnerable today after Democrats dramatically closed the vote gaps in the primaries by 17% and 14%, respectively. The races have moved from Likely R, to Lean R and toss-up on the Cook Political Report, in just one year.  In CA-39, incumbent Ed Royce is retiring and Democratic candidates picked up 23,000 votes to Republicans’ 4,400 in the 2018 primaries and are well-positioned to take advantage of increased turnout in November.

538 Predictions: CA48 (lean Democrat), CA45 (lean Democrat), CA39 (toss-up)

right partners

Our two partners in Orange County, StandUp OC and Leadership Lab, bring deep knowledge of how to win in Orange County, as well as expertise in deploying research-backed deep canvassing to persuade swing voters. StandUp OC grew out of the Hillary Clinton campaign and has maintained an engaged volunteer base of nearly 800 people who continue to call, text and canvass on behalf of Democratic candidates locally and nationwide.  Leadership Lab has honed its deep canvassing model to authentically engage and persuade voters on a range of issues and is expanding to CA-48 for the first time.

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right tactics

StandUp OC is coordinating volunteers for the Democratic Party of Orange County, including working with local resistance and political groups to ensure that efforts are as aligned and effective as possible. They are Getting Out the Vote with base voters and will do deeper data analysis to micro-target swing voters with an investment from Fight for Better.  Leadership Lab is currently leading non-partisan, issue-based canvasses in priority precincts; additional funding will allow them to add the partisan element (specifically connecting issues to the political parties) which will be critical to impacting the 2018 election.

Examples of Right Tactics + Results:

Using research-based Vote Fwd model to send hand-written letters to infrequent voters; texting all voters 18-35